Some things in racing simply can’t be predicted - or at least they can’t be easily predicted.  At Aintree, in the three-mile-one-furlong contest, Kauto Star was looking strong and all reports said Kauto “took charge” up the straight, which I have to agree with.  However at the second-last, his front legs went through the birch, slowing him on the run-in.  That’s when Our Vic (9-1) took the opportunity to surpass Kauto Star and win the race by a nose.

As I watched this race, I couldn’t help but reflect on some of the unpredictable factors that exist within horseracing - at least on the surface.  Mistakes happen.  Horses simply can take off too soon, and as fate would have it - it ended up another horse’s race. 

What’s a punter to do?  Could there have been a way to predict something like this?  The weather was fine and the going was ok.  Is there a place punters can look for additional information on the potential performance of horses?  I say there is - trainers.

I thought one of the most intriguing statements in the press was made by Kauto Star’s trainer Paul Nicholls who first put in a sort of apology for what took place:

 ”Ruby’s not happy with me.  I told him to be positive with him, bowl along - probably he should have just got a lead and not have been so positive.  We get it right more times than we get it wrong.  I’ll take the blame.”

But can Nicholls take the blame for a horse’s mistake?  Paul’s next statement offers us a little more insight as to the history of Kauto Star:

“The mistake at the second-last obviously didn’t help, but Kauto always makes the odd mistake.  On the whole he’s brilliant.  We’ll get him fresh and we’ll see him back next autumn.”

I think regardless of when we see Kauto again - intelligent betters will take careful note of the fact that “Kauto always makes the odd mistake.”  Odd mistakes are what can turn a winning bet into a lose - and odds are always much better on those horses who reliably repeat the same kind of performance, regardless of whether they win or lose.  The tendency of a horse to throw in an odd mistake here and there makes it extremely difficult to estimate and project their most probable performance in their future races.

However, this knowledge is important.  I encourage readers to do as I’ve done - jot down the trainer’s comments in my notebook, and keep that fact in mind when I’m preparing to lay down my bets.